Abstract of a paper titled "Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts":
"Stock market forecasting is an important and challenging process that influences investment decisions. This paper presents an experimental design that aims to measure the influence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in these forecasts. The study was conducted using information from the S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select financial index; this was presented to 670 students from the cities of Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia), and Lima (Peru). Data was collected and presented through an instrument that asked participants to make a forecast judgment of the said financial index, based on the presented graphics, representing a year, a month, a week, and the last closing value of the index. Thus, it was possible to measure the influence of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in order to establish whether the presence of an initial value affected the financial forecast. Similarly, the study sought to determine whether the judgment issued was biased toward an optimistic or pessimistic position, thereby proving the presence of an error or expectation bias, known as optimism bias. The results were analyzed using the least squares method, and the data panel confirmed that the anchoring and adjustment heuristic influences the forecast of the financial index used in the study. Similarly, the presence of optimism bias in the cognitive process of forecasting in finance was inferred."
Abstract of a paper titled "Behavioural Finance and Investment Decisions: Does Behavioral Bias Matter?":
"This paper examines the nexus between behavioural bias and investment decisions in a developing country context. Specifically, this study tests the effect of four behavioural biases (overconfidence, regret, belief, and “snakebite”) on investment decisions. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics including multiple regression are used to examine the behavioural biases-investment decisions nexus. The study reveals that the four bias have a significant positive and robust relationship with investment decision making. The result also shows that the "snakebite" effect contributes more to the decision making, followed by belief bias then regret bias. Overconfidence bias, however, contributes the least effect on investment decisions. Our contribution confirms the prospect theory and that behavioural bias influences investment decisions in the developing country perspective."
Abstract of a paper titled "Complex decision-making strategies in a stock market experiment explained as the combination of few simple strategies":
"Many studies have shown that there are regularities in the way human beings make decisions. However, our ability to obtain models that capture such regularities and can accurately predict unobserved decisions is still limited. We tackle this problem in the context of individuals who are given information relative to the evolution of market prices and asked to guess the direction of the market. We use a networks inference approach with stochastic block models (SBM) to find the model and network representation that is most predictive of unobserved decisions. Our results suggest that users mostly use recent information (about the market and about their previous decisions) to guess. Furthermore, the analysis of SBM groups reveals a set of strategies used by players to process information and make decisions that is analogous to behaviors observed in other contexts. Our study provides and example on how to quantitatively explore human behavior strategies by representing decisions as networks and using rigorous inference and model-selection approaches."
[Note: The tendency to use "recent information" can be classified as "recency bias".]
From the second paragraph of the "Conclusion": "A close analysis of the model parameters highlights the ability of these models to decompose complex behaviors into a linear combination of elementary behaviors. Our analysis helps identify basic patterns of behavior that are consistent with human behavior in other contexts. First, we observe an optimistic bias that suggests that individuals make decisions based on their desire that the market goes up. Second, we observe that many players use a win-stay loose-shift strategy which is known to be very efficient in the long run in learning processes, games of adversity, co-evolution networks, etc. Last, we find that players also display a tendency to repeat previous decisions, a behavior observed when individuals have to perform repetitive tasks. Our study demonstrates that these behavioral patterns of behavior are hidden to the naked eye but can be obtained from the data using our approach."
Abstract of a paper titled "The Effects of Personality Types and Demographic Factors on Overconfidence Bias and Decision Making of Investment Types":
"In financial management theories an investor will act rationally and make a decision to invest based on the rules in the financial management theory. Nevertheless, in reality the decision making to invest is very often irrational and not in accordance with the financial management theory. This deviation is caused by the bias of investors’ behaviour in making a decision. Investors who only focus on the return of an investment without paying attention to the risks are said to experience overconfidence bias. This research analyses the factors which are considered to influence investors with overconfidence bias in deciding the investment types. The factors are personality type, marital status, income level, work experience, and fields of study that have been taken. This research can contribute to completing the study of financial management, particularly in the investment decision and putting psychological factors in the analysis of financial management."